SENTRA INFORMASI JOGJA

FOREX Indek ataupun Dunia Komoditi

2012-01-25T18:34:00.000-08:00

Ekonomi di Eropa ataupun Amerika untuk saat ini masih sangat belum jelas. Oleh karena itu fluktuasi yang terjadi di market sangatlah bervariasi dan sangat susah di prediksi. Tapi menurut saya jika anda mempunyai modal atupun tahanan kuat silahkan bermain dengan lot seminimal mungkin dengan masuk market long term atau dengan kata lain untuk jangka panjang karena hal ini menurut saya lebih aman. Hal ini untuk menghidari spekulasi anda dalam memutuskan masuk market / transaksi yang tanpa alasan yang kuat dan tanpa dasar. Tetap saya mengingatkan sebelum masuk market silahkan analisa semua indikator-indikator yang ada.

Sentra Investasi Pada Awal Tahun 2012 : spread 3 +cash 2 = BEP 5 POIN

2012-01-06T20:02:00.000-08:00

Kami Sentra Investasi Jogja Menawarkan mini forex Skyeast FX dengan produk yang baru. Dengan Spread tetap 3 poin tetapi dengan cash 2 poin jadi kita lebih cepat memperoleh BEP dalam satu transaksi yaitu dengan pergerakan harga 5 poin saja (# keterangan: 3 pips + 2 pips = BEP 5 pips) berarti setelah BEP kita sudah bisa mengambil untung atau close market setelah target yang dianalisa kita tercapai.

Dengan adanya produk ini nasabah ataupun trader bisa memilih mau transaksi di produk yang lama atau dengan cash komisi 2 poin saja.
Atau tetap enjoy dengan transaksi dengan cash 5 poin ( #keterangan: spread 3 pips + cash 5 pips = BEP 8 pips).

Silahkan hubungi kami di : YM: sentrainvestasi / soerif_ganteng / 0274-6934399

Piala Dunia Soccer

2010-01-18T06:27:00.000-08:00

Mari bergabung mendulang dollar di Sistem Arbitrage. Jangan sampai terlambat..
Hubungi kami dan ikuti pelatihannya... Sistem kami di bursa olahraga ini menghilangkan kesan dan cara bertransaksi secara gambling.. dan akhirnya anda meninggalkan judi.. Tapi sistem arbitrage yang akan bekerja..
Sistem ini bukan sistem robot trading ataupun sistem automatic trading.

kami tunggu anda

Mengenal Investasi Di Olah Raga atau "Arbitrage Trading On Sporting Exchange"

2009-08-10T19:17:00.000-07:00

Apa perbedaan antara judi dan investasi?

Definisi umum yang paling sering digunakan adalah segala sesuatunya yang bersifat untung-untungan dan tidak dapat ditebak dengan dasar yang bias diterima akal sehat adalah JUDI.

Sementara, segala sesuatu yang dapat di analisa dan ada ada dasarnya berupa data atau bukti konkreat lainnya dinamakan INVESTASI.

Melemparkan koin dan menutupnya dengan tujuan menebak angka atau gambar merupakan judi. Namun, menganalisa pergerakan harga saham atau valas dinamakan investasi, walaupun tidak ada seorangpun dapat memastikan hasilnya akhirnya. Jika investasi di Bursa Efek Jakarta dinamakan judi karena mengandung unsur untung-untungan, seharusnya diharamkan dan ditutup juga transaksinya. Tetepi, perdagangan saham merupakan sebuah investasi. Dalam sebuah investasi dapat terjadi untung, rugi, atau stagnasi.

Mengapa Berinvestasi di Betfair?

Walaupun judul yang dipergunakan dalam situs Betfair adalah “Sports Betting Exchange” alias terjemahan explisitnya adalah “Bursa Taruhan Olahraga” bukan berarti ini adalah judi. Sama halnya pengertian kerbau adalah seekor binatang namun binatang belum tentu seekor kerbau bukan? Atau, investasi bukanlah judi, namun perdagangan dapat di ibaratkan juga sebagai investasi.
Harga-harga yang diperdagangkan adalah merupakan opini-opini individual dari seluruh dunia yang bertemu dalam suatu bursa/pasar dan memperdagangkan opini-opini tersebut berdasarkan pandangan dan analisanya masing-masing terhadap sebuah pertandingan olahraga. Opini ini di terjemahkan dalam sebuah harga pasaran beserta jumlah barang yang tersedia untuk diperjualbelikan.

Perbandingan:
Seorang investor berinvestasi dalam bursa valas dan melakukan berbagai analisa dan pekerjaan lainnya yang dianggap perlu dalam mendukung keputusannya antara mengambil posisisi beli atau jual. Pada saat si investor mengambil keputusan membeli/menjual kemungkinan yang akan terjadi hanya 2. Antara prediksi yang didasarkan analisa canggihnya benar atau malah berlawanan arah. Sederhananya, jika ia benar maka keuntungan yang akan didapat dan jika ia salah atau pasar begerak melawan dirinya ia akan mengalami kerugian.

Begitu pula system perdagangan di Betfair. Investor juga harus menentukan kapan dia ingin masuk ke pasar dan dengan posisi apa? Jual atau beli? Dengan berjalannya sebuah pertandingan olahraga akan berfluktuasi mengikuti dinamisnya permainan olah raga dan bertransaksi membentuk portofolionya masing-masing di dalam bursa Betfair dan bersaing dengan investor lainnya.

Terdapat hampir tidak terhitung berapa banyak kombinasi cara berinvestasi yang dapat di kembangkan dalam Betfair untuk mencapai keuntungan yang diinginkan. Apakah dengan tujuan lindung nilai (hedging) atau dengan tujuan untung lebih banyak namun rugi lebih sedikit. Tetapi dalam jangka panjang adalah untung atau dengan cara mencari kesempatan selisih harga antara pasar yang berbeda atau dengan cara diversifikasi produk dan masih banyak lagi.

Apakah Berinvestasi di Betfair merupakan judi?

Tergantung dari pola perdagangan masing-masing. Jika anda berinvestasi dalam valas dalam bentuk (margin trading) dan terjadi (margin call) sementara anda tidak menambah dana untuk menutup kerugian yang dialami saat itu, bukankah ini juga dapat di kategorikan dengan kalah judi? Namun, jika anda sempat menjual atau membeli kembali dan menutup posisi Anda biarpun dalam keadaan rugi. Ini masih dkategorikan sebagai kerugian investasi.

Sama halnya berinvestasi di dalam Betfair. Jika Anda dapat dapat bertransaksi layaknya seperti perdagangan saham atau valas pada dasarnya semua mekanisme dan cara spekulasinya adalah sama hanya dengan perbedaan produk perdaganganya itu sendiri. Bahkan keunggulan bursa olahraga adalah pergerakan harga dapat dipastikan hamper selalu sama dari waktu ke waktu sampai terjadi hasil/gol dimana harga akan menyesuaikan kembali dengan kondisi terakhir.

Jadi, konkretnya tidak ada jawaban yang universal untuk pertanyaan apakah ini merupakan judi atau investasi karena tergantung pola perdagangan masing-masing. Namun kelihatanya bursa olahraga lebih condong di kategorikan sebagai investasi karena fitur-fitur dan kemungkinan-kemungkinan yang ditawarkan oleh Betfair adalah mendukung investor untuk berinvestasi daripada untuk berjudi. Semua data untuk keperluan analisa tersedia luas dan bebas gratis.

Beberapa saran-saran yang dapat berguna dalam berinvestasi di dalam bursa saham yang juga dapat berlaku dalam bursa olahraga:

Buy on bed news, sell on good news.
Disarankan untuk berpedoman pada saran ini. Pada saat keadaan sedang kacau dan harga berubah-ubah menjadi murah disarankan untuk membeli dan tunggu samapai keadaan merendah untuk menjualnya. Seperti berenang melawan arus. Sering membuahkan keberhasilan. Kebanyakan orang membeli pada saat orang lainya juga berbondong membeli yang sama dimana harga akan melambung tinggi. Daripada mengikut arus, disarankan lebih baik membeli lawannya atau menjual dengan harga mahal dan membeli dengan harga murah.

Beli murah dan jual mahal.
Ini merupakan impian semua investor. Membeli pada saat murah dan tunggu sampai harga melambung tinggi untuk dijual. Masalahnya: tidak seorang pun mengetahui kapan harga terendah dan kapan harga termahal. Pada akhirnya si investorlah yang menentukan sendiri berapa keuntungan yang ingin di perolehnya.

The trend is your friend
Kecendrungan adalah kawan anda. Menurut para pakar pada saat harga sedang naik atau memihak kepada anda jangan terlalu cepat untuk menjualnya.

Buy on rumors, sell on facts.
Mulailah membeli pada saat isu berkembang karena pergerakan harga untuk naik lebih cepat dibanding pada saat menjual yang dimana lebih di dasarkan pada kenyataan data.

Mengapa berinvestasi dalam bursa?
Karena jika hanya dengan berinvestasi USD 1,000 terdapat kemungkinan untuk rugi hanya sebanyak maksimum USD 1,000 namun jika untung adalah tanpa batas.

Bagaimana cara membaca harga ?

Betfair menggunakan harga desimal dalam perdagangan bursa olah raganya.
Harga-harga tersebut dapat di artikan sebagai berikut:

Harga 1.80 berati jika untung adalah 80% dan jika rugi adalah 100%.
Perhitungannya adalah USD 1,000 x 1.80 = USD 1,800. keuntungan bersih adalah USD 1,800 dikurang USD 1,000 (sebagai modal awal) yang menghasilkan USD 800 atau 80%.

Harga 2.20 berati jika untung adalah 120% dan jika rugi 100%.
Perhitunganya adalah USD 1,000 x 2.20 = 2,200
Keuntungan bersih adalah USD 2,200 dikurang USD 1,000 (sebagai modal awal) yang menghasilkan USD 1,200 atau 120%.

Pergerakan harga akan lebih terlihat dalam perdagangan yang di tawarkan secara langsung atau “Live”. Pada kategori “sepak bola” atau “soccer” Anda dapat memilih “coupon” lantas “week-end/mid-week In Play Games” untuk daftar pertandingan mana saja yang akan di tawarkan secara langsung.

Bisakah BETFAIR memberikan bebrapa contoh strategi investasi tentang bagaimana bertransaksi di bursa olahraga?

Berikut ini beberapa contoh umum yang bisa dilakukan oleh para investor nasional dan internasional dalam berdagang di bursa Betfair dan mengirim komentar-komentar nya ke jphan.com:
“Saya nge-LAY (menjual/menawarkan ) UNDER di bursa Betfair pada pertandingan Man – Utd lawan Arsenal pada posisi 0: 0 selama bola sedang berjalan diharga 1.35 sebanyak USD 500. Setelah terjadi gol, terdapat harga bagus untuk UNDER seharga 2.1! Langsung saya nge-BACK (membeli) balik UNDER sebanyak USD 325 saja yang membuat posisi saya juga langsung belah duren (kedua posisi dalam posisi positif atau menang dalam hasil akhir apapun)! Semua posisi menang! Jika hasilnya UNDER saya untung USD 150 dan jika hasilnya OVER saya untung 142.50, kanan – kiri saya untung!”

“Saya berinvestas di CORRECT SCORE dalam bursa betfair pada (1-0) harga 5.35, (2-0) harga 6.3 dan (2-1) dengan harga 7.5 sebanyak @ USD 5. Karena saya memprediksikan pertandingan ini tidak jauh lewat dari analisa itu. Ternyata benar hasil akhir 2-1 ! Prediksi saya tembus dan untung bersih masih dapat USD 22.5! Rugi dua, menang satu, nilai investasinya sama, tapi masih untung !”

“Di bursa Betfair saya bias hanya nge-lay (jual) Arsenal atau “barang atas” di pasar Match-Odds dimana kebetulan sama dengan pasaran ½ bola untuk pasar local saya. Sementara saya menawarkan “bawah” kepada pemain local saya dengn harga sedikit murah. Akhirnya saya selalu dapat atas dan bawah dalam perhitungan saya sesuai barang yang saya inginkan.

Mengapa Saya harus registrasi?

Registrasi diperlukan agar Anda dapat mempunyai sebuah rekening dan dapat melakukan transaksi investasi di Betfair.

What is Forex...?

2008-05-26T20:54:00.000-07:00

The simple sense of Forex (Forex currency exchange, Foreign Exchange) is simultaneous purchase and sale of the currency or the exchange of one country's currency for the one of another country. The world currencies do not have a fixed exchange rate and are always fluctuating being traded in the currency pairs like Euro/Dollar, Dollar/Yen an others. 85% of daily trades are taken by major currencies trading.

Investments usually deal with 4 major pairs: Euro against US dollar, US dollar against Japanese yen, British pound against US dollar, and US dollar against Swiss franc or EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF used to sign these pairs accordingly. These major pairs are considered as Forex market's "blue chips". You will not receive any dividends on the currencies. Well known "buy low - sell high" gives the profit for currency trades.

In case you have a forecast that one currency would get higher to another you can exchange the second one for the first one and wait for the profit. If you are lucky to see the trades following your forecast you can make an opposite transaction and to exchange currencies back gaining the profit.

Forex transactions are carried out by Forex brokerage companies, also known as major banks dealers. Forex market is worldwide and your European colleagues may make a transaction with Japanese traders when it's time for you to sleep in the North America. There are 3 shifts for the major institutions to work in due to 24-hours a day activity of the Forex market. It's possible to ask for overnight execution for take-profit and stop-loss orders of the client.

Prices in the Forex market fluctuate without any dramatic changes unlike stock market where considerable gaps are likely to be seen. There isn't any problems entering and exit the market due to its daily turnover of about $1.2 trillion. Forex market can not ever be forced to stop. The transactions were carried out even in 2001, on September, 11th.

Foreign exchange market (also called Forex of FX to shorten the name) is the oldest market in the world. It is also seen to be the largest one. Being currencies' primary market working 24-hours a day, Forex is also the largest market with highest liquidity. This is an interbank market carrying out spot (or cash) transactions. The currency futures market, to be compared with Forex is traded only 1% as much.

Forex market doesn't have any exchange center unlike the stock market. Forex trading seem to go after the sun around the world, from banks of the United States to other parts of the world like Australia, New Zealand, the Far East or Europe and back to the US some time later.

High minimum amount of transaction and strict financial requirements used to make this interbank market unavailable for small speculators. The only dealers of currency markets were banks, huge-amount speculators and largest currency dealers. They had an ultimate access to this market dealing with lots of primary exchange rates of the world currencies, the market with an extremely high liquidity along with an unusually strong nature of trends.

Nowadays small traders have an opportunity to purchase the small lots (units), as a result of the large inter-bank units being split by market maker brokers like FX Solutions, at the amount they like.

The traders of any size like small companies and individual speculators have an access to the market at the same price fluctuations and exchange rates which only large players used to enjoy recently. Market makers monitor the rates so that produce their profit on the difference of rates at which the currency was bought and sold.

Foreign Exchange Market has an acronymic name Forex. It has the largest size and the liquidity throughout the world nowadays. Forex daily transactions are carried out at the common amount from 1 to 3 trillion dollars. There is no stock market that is able to deal with a comparable amount of money.

This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.

This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.

The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.

This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.

Still, lots of experienced traders consider such leverage dangerous and won't get started with it. Though, if you know how ho use such high leverage it will do you only good. But this is the place to stop speaking about the basic things. Keep reading these articles if you want to be aware of how this market has occurred and some of its historical matters.

Now it is time to speak about the strategies and the way of making money at Forex some traders use. First we should say that the things that work in one case do not certainly work in another. The fact is that currency trading surely means risk. Still, there are a number of strategies for the newbie to use to be the winner.

Forex trading may seem very easy but it is not. Your high today earnings may turn into considerable losses even of your starting capital tomorrow. Newbie traders are likely to make the same mistakes several times. Here is a list of such typical mistakes.

1. There is no use of searching the "Holy Grail"
This phrase is to think for those who are scared of losses or being too greedy does his best to get rich in no time. You can surely make lots of money during some time and there isn't a necessity of producing and advertising anything but a huge homework is required to learn first. You have to know how this market works and which factors can take the exchange rate up or down. You should also be aware of the effective management for your money not to lose everything.

The majority of traders starting at Forex, look for their ultimate strategy that will cause no losses and will bring only profit. The desire of such people is to make a strategy that guarantees stable profit and millions of earnings in a short time without any losses for them to quit and enjoy their fortune and the new huge house. This will never bring any success.

There is no strategy that will give you only profit and such research is only waste of time. High profits of trading are caused by high risk, and you won't earn a fortune without being on the knife edge. Don't be sure that every trade will close in advantage to you. You will always feel uncertain and there is no way to vanish it. It means that you should always be ready to the possibility of your strategy failing even if it is thought as perfect.

You'll save a plenty of time and nerves by avoiding the search for the perfect strategy of earning millions. Even if you find this strategy you won't ever need it. You'll see why later.

2. Apply fundamental and technical analysis.
At the beginning of my trading I relied only on the money management on which I wanted to base my strategy and saw no sense of these analyses. But money management which is still very important doesn't worth omitting them. You can forecast the direction of the market basing on your technical and fundamental strategies to see their effectiveness.

You'll be able to make forecasts of price movements by applying the past data of the prices and graphs to the technical analysis methods. You can predict future prices with the level of accuracy dependent on your technical analysis skills using the graphs of the rates you observe.

Trading with some brokers you can see technical indicators along with the graphs. You can apply it to your demo account and estimate your prediction skills necessary for planning trading decisions.

It is impossible to choose the most effective indicator among lots of various ones. Each trader has to decide for himself which indicator is best for him. You can't find any magic formula; you just see the graphs, make your forecasts and find out whether they come true seeing the values in the news later.

Your decisions form this formula along with your knowledge that occurs out of the practical experience. Starting trading with an online broker it's best for you to trade with yourself on the sheet of paper rather than invest real money at once.

There are a lot of technical analysis indicators available but here are the ones which are the most wide-spread: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the Bollinger Bands, Pivot Points, RSI, Stochastic, Fibonacci, EMA, Elliot Waves.

The broker's software will automatically make all the necessary calculations when you add the technical analysis indicator to the graph so that you'll see some facts which are unavailable without using these indicators. It is even possible for you to build your own technical systems basing on these indicators.

Fundamental analysis is another tool that maximizes your profit and minimizes your losses on the trades. There are some traders who prefer only one kind but the majority prefers both.

Fundamental analysis means trading following the news, e.g. telling about the economies or unemployment rate in the countries of the currencies you trade. They can also tell about the events that can have a strong influence on the currencies' exchange rate.

You can make forecasts on the market direction by following the news as well. That's why various trading software of the brokers like www.oanda.com offer a link to the page containing important news.

a) www.bloomberg.com
b) www.businessweek.com
c) www.economist.com
d) money.cnn.com
e) www.reuters.com

3. Use the strategies of money management.
Money management strategies let you win or lose. You should use them to be in a profit. Many traders make too vast investments in every trade and this is not always rational and reminds of a saying: "Expect to make too much and you will make too little, expect to make little and you will make a lot." It means that even if you invest much trying to get a lot on every trade you can lose all and even if you make small investments looking for a small reward you can make a lot in some period.

1% of the total sum of your account is the maximum sum of the potential risk. This is the first rule of the money management. Stop loss and limit orders may help you to follow this rule. This may be the reason of the small profit, especially if you have small initial investments, but by compounding a part of you profit or the whole one you can get an exponentially growing income.

This strategy of compound profits is the one that helped to make millions on financial market instead of gambling that results in losing all investments quickly.

Here is the example of the opposite tactics that many traders follow. Imagine that you have an initial investment of $5,000. You're lucky to possess the trading account and you enter a $1,000 trade. In case the markets trends down and you lose your $1,000 your assets become $4,000. You keep following your strategy and enter a $1,500 trade being sure that the market is at its low and hoping to get back your $1,000 plus earn $500 more. Then the market keeps moving against you leaving you with $2,500 on your account which is only one half of your starting capital. This is a very difficult situation to recover from.

About fundamental analysis

2008-04-22T20:14:00.000-07:00

There follows parts of fundamental analysis will be described:
• Forex economic indicators list
• USA economic indicators
• Japan economic indicators
• UK economic indicators
. Top stock exchanges
The underlying elements affecting the economy of the subject is studied by Forex fundamental analysis. According to this method, the analysis of economic indicators, social factors and government policy of a business cycle can forecast price movement and trends of the market. The fundamentals of any country, multinational industry or trading bloc lie in the combination of factors like social, political and economic influences. Though, it is rather hard to stay aside from all these variable factors. So, the sphere of complicated and subtle market fundamental lets the explorer know and understand more details of a dynamic global market during the analyzing.
It is possible to predict the conditions of the economy but unlikely the market prices by using the fundamental analysis. You should have a certain plan of action concerning the ways of using the information as entry and exit spots in a certain strategy of trading. Forex fundamental analysis is a fundamental strategy of trading widely used by online trader of forex. This strategy contains some estimations where the different basic criteria, except for the price movement, are taken into consideration during currency trading. The economic conditions in the currency native country along with a number of other factors are the obligatory elements of these criteria. Any fundamental part of the economy is included into the fundamental analysis. A decent forex fundamental analysis includes a number of macroeconomic factors like economic growth rates, interest rates, inflation, unemployment level and others. The market supply and demand coming from political and social powers is the aim of fundamental analysis. The market supply and demand balance forms the currencies prices. The interest rates and the overall economy strength are the two key factors that influence the supply-demand balance. The overall health of the economy can be understood through a number of economic indicators like GDP. The frequent inability of online forex fundamental analyses to find the entry and exit points is forex fundamental analysis key problem. Due to this factor the risk control, especially provided with the leverage, gets quite complicated. Only a piece of an enormous amount of information coming every day is considerable. The interest rates and international trade are the factors analyzed the most carefully. In order to create the forex trading strategy fundamentalist traders create models. The empirical data is gathered in these models for further forecasting the possible price trends and market behavior basing on the key economic indicators.
Sometimes it happens that two analysts possessing the same data come to different conclusions about the market behavior. Still you should research the fundamental data and find out their best fitting to the style of trading and expectations before getting down to any analysis. Any data making the country tick is considered as fundamental by forex traders. The fundamentals are the combination of certain plans, unpredictable behaviors and unforeseen events found out from the factors like interest rates and the policy of central bank and even natural disasters. That's why it's better to be aware of the affective contributors of all these factors than to all the fundamentals listed.
Fundamental elements of the economy:
1. The Basic Concept
The economy will be affected by the investment performance. The expected returns may change due to inflation or deflation influence. That's why it is important to take the economy trends into consideration while planning the strategies of investment.
A. The Business Cycle
The activity of the economy is generally shown by the business cycle. The business cycle consists of four stages: recovery (also known as expansion), peak, contraction (also called recession), and trough.

The growth of business activity, the increase of demand and production as well as the expansion of employment can be seen. The interest rates generally rise during this phase due to money borrowing by businesses and consumers for their expansion.
B. Inflation
At the moment of business cycle peak the amount of goods on demand gets higher than the one on offer which is followed by the prices increase and makes the inflation. At the inflationary environment the amount of money offered for the goods is too high and it makes the conditions for the prices to rise. This lowers the customer's ability for purchasing.
The demand declines lowering the economic activity due to the prices increase. The recessionary phase follows this process.
C. Deflation
During deflation the economical activity lowers making the employers fire the workers and lowering the demand. This is generally followed by the prices lowering that turn into deflation. The trough phase comes after that. Deflation is characterized as a process of strong and prolonged prices reduction. The following demand rise is caused by low prices and creates the conditions for the economy to come into the expansion phase.
2. Gross National Product (GNP)
Gross National Product is one of the key indicators of the economic activity. All the services provided and the goods produced within the US economy form the GNP. There are 4 components included in the GNP. They are: consumer spending, government spending, investments, and net exports.
Gross National Product adjusted for inflation (Real GNP) being in decline during two successive quarters is a sign of recession.
3. Indicators of the Business Cycle
Three types of indicators describing the economy movements during its entering into a certain phase of the business cycle are generally used by the economists: leading, coincident, and lagging indicators.
4. The business cycle's effect in Forex
Forex market is sensitive to the economy changes and reacts during its movement through any of the phases. It is important for the investors to monitor these changes and take right decisions in order to get benefits out of these changes.
The US dollar movements in the Forex market are usually trending the opposite direction to the interest rates. For instance, the increase of incomes caused by the interest rates uptrending declines the US dollar index accordingly.
5. Monetary Policy
The control of money and credit supply within the economy is the general aim on the monetary policy. The interest rates are affected by these processes and cause the economic activity decline. The monetary policy is mainly interested in the inflation control.
6. The activity of the Federal Reserve System (FRS)
The US monetary policy is directed by the Federal Reserve System. The nation's central bank, which is the Federal Reserve System, was established in 1913 by the Act of Congress that has created 12 Federal Reserve districts within the country. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors located in Washington D.C. is responsible for district banks activity coordination. The seven members of the board are appointed by the President and the nominees require the confirmation of the Senate later.

Understanding Forex Quotes

2008-01-24T23:48:00.001-08:00

Reading a foreign exchange quote may seem a bit confusing at first. However, it's really quite simple if you remember two things: 1) The first currency listed is the base currency and 2) the value of the base currency is always 1.

The US dollar is the centerpiece of the Forex market and is normally considered the 'base' currency for quotes. In the "Majors", this includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair. For example, a quote of USD/JPY 110.01 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 110.01 Japanese yen.

When the U.S. dollar is the base unit and
a currency quote goes up, it means the dollar has appreciated in value and the other currency has weakened. If the USD/JPY quote we previously mentioned increases to 113.01, the dollar is stronger because it will now buy more yen than before.

The three exceptions to this rule are the British pound (GBP), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Euro (EUR). In these cases, you might see a quote such as GBP/USD 1.7366, meaning that one British pound equals 1.7366 U.S. dollars.

In these three currency pairs, where the U.S. dollar is not the base rate, a rising quote means a weakening dollar, as it now takes more U.S. dollars to equal one pound, euro or Australian dollar.

In other words, if a currency quote goes higher, that increases the value of the base currency. A lower quote means the base currency is weakening.

Currency pairs that do not involve the U.S. dollar are called cross currencies, but the premise is the same. For example, a quote of EUR/JPY 127.95 signifies that one Euro is equal to 127.95 Japanese yen.

When trading forex you will often see a two-sided quote, consisting of a 'bid' and 'ask':

The 'bid' is the price at which you can sell the base currency (at the same time buying the counter currency).
The 'ask' is the price at which you can buy the base currency (at the same time selling the counter currency).

Using Indicators to Identify Trends

2008-01-24T23:40:00.001-08:00

Of the many market sayings thrown around by traders, perhaps none is more overused and less understood than the old adage 'the trend is your friend'. All too often, the phrase is used after a trader has taken a counter-trend position and subsequently been stopped out at a loss. Remorse sets in at this point and most traders kick themselves not only for having lost on a counter-trend trade, but also for not having caught the latest move in the trend itself.

To avoid this all too common scenario, we will suggest using several technical tools to identify whether or not a trend is in place and then use additional indicators to help maximize trading profits. Having a strategy in place to identify trends is essential to successful trading in any market, but especially so in the case of the forex markets. Currencies have a greater tendency to move in trending fashion due to the longer-term macroeconomic elements that drive exchange rates, such as interest rate cycles or global trade imbalances. Currencies are also pre-disposed to short-term, intra-day trends due to international capital flows reacting in unison to day-to-day economic and political news.
Identifying the Trend
In its most basic sense, a trend is simply a prolonged market movement in one general direction, either up or down. From a traders' perspective, though, that simple definition is so broad as to be relatively meaningless. A more relevant definition of a trend would be one where a trend is defined as a predictable price response at levels of support/resistance that change over time. For example, in an uptrend the defining feature is that prices rebound when they near support levels, ultimately establishing new highs. In a downtrend, the opposite is true-price increases will reverse as they near resistance levels, and new lows will be reached. This definition reveals the first of the tools used to identify whether a trend is in place or not-trendline analysis to establish support and resistance levels.

Trendline analysis is often underestimated because it is perceived as overly subjective and retrospective in nature. While both criticisms have some truth, they overlook the reality that trendlines help focus attention on the underlying price pattern, filtering out the noise of the market. For this reason, trendline analysis should be the first step in determining the existence of a trend. If trendline analysis does not reveal a discernible trend, it's probably because there isn't one.

Trendline analysis is best employed starting with longer timeframes (daily or weekly charts) first and then carrying them forward into shorter timeframes (hourly or 4-hourly) where shorter-term levels of support and resistance can then be identified. This approach has the advantage of highlighting the most significant levels of support/resistance first and less important levels next. This helps reduce the chances of following a short-term trendline break while a major long-term level is lurking nearby.

Another technical tool that can be deployed to verify the existence of a trend is the directional movement indicator system (DMI), developed by J. Welles Wilder (see Wilder, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, c. 1978). Using the DMI removes the guesswork involved with spotting trends and can also provide confirmation of trends identified by trendline analysis. The DMI system is comprised of the ADX (average directional movement index) and the DI+ and DI- lines. The ADX is used to determine whether or not a market is trending (regardless if it's up or down), with a reading over 25 indicating a trending market and a reading below 20 indicating no trend. The ADX is also a measure of the strength of a trend--the higher the ADX, the stronger the trend. Using the ADX, traders can determine whether or not there is a trend and thus whether or not to use a trend following system.

As its name would suggest, the DMI system is best employed using both components. The DI+ and DI- lines are used as trade entry signals. A buy signal is generated when the DI+ line crosses up through the DI- line; a sell signal is generated when the DI- line crosses up through the DI+ line. (Wilder suggests using the "extreme point rule" to govern the DI+/DI- crossover signal. The rule states that when the DI+/- lines cross, traders should note the extreme point for that period in the direction of the crossover (the high if DI+ crosses up over DI-; the low if DI- crosses up over DI+). Only if that extreme point is breached in the subsequent period is a trade signal confirmed.

The ADX can then be used as an early indicator of the end/pause in a trend. When the ADX begins to move lower from its highest level, the trend is either pausing or ending, signaling it is time to exit the current position and wait for a fresh signal from the DI+/DI- crossover.

CHART 1: JUMP IN AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE. If you are an aggressive trader and entered a long position at Point A, and only exited your position at Point C, you would be pleased with the results. This can be achieved with a few simple indicators.

Let's look at recent long-term trend (chart 1) and put trendline analysis together with the DMI system to illustrate the utility of these tools when used in conjunction with each other. An aggressive trader might initiate a long position as the daily resistance line is breached on 11/12/03 (point A). A trader looking for confirmation might wait a day, when the DI+ crosses up through the DI- line, generating a buy signal. A conservative trader might wait for confirmation of the DI+/- crossover by waiting for the extreme point (high) to be exceeded, in line with Wilder's extreme point rule. This confirmation is given the following day (11/14/03). As the market begins to move higher, the support trendline drawn off the lows is tested, but holds, underscoring its validity to a nascent trend. Although the market has moved higher in line with the DI+/DI- crossover and trendline support, the ADX is still below 25 until 12/2/03 (point B), when a trend is finally confirmed. At this point, a trader should recognize that they are in a trending market and trend following systems can usefully be employed.

This brings us to the point of introducing some additional tools that can be used to maximize profit within a trending market. We have already suggested using the ADX as an early indicator of the end of a trend. Note that from point B, when it first registers above 25 indicating a trending market, the ADX continues to make new highs until 01/14/04 (point C) when it closes lower signaling a likely end to the uptrend and that it's time to exit the long position.

A second tool used to identify an exit point and possibly the end of a trend is the parabolic indicator. The parabolic indicator follows the price action but accelerates its own rate of increase over time and in response to the trend. The result is that the parabolic is continually closing in on the price, and only a steadily accelerating price rise (the essence of a trend) will prevent the price from falling below the parabolic, signaling an end to the trend. Chart 2 shows the parabolic indicator overlaid on the previous chart. Note that the parabolic gives an exit signal (point D) the day after the ADX experienced its first lower close.

CHART 2: ADD A COUPLE MORE INDICATORS. Here, the parabolic indicator was used. The exit signal was given one day after the ADX gave its exit signal.

The very basic trendlines that are drawn also could have signaled the end to the uptrend. Note that the price accelerates above the upper channel line in the final extension of the uptrend, tests back to the break and then goes on to make new highs. The subsequent price decline back below the upper channel line would then signal the end of the up-move. As well, another support line similar to the parabolic could also be drawn, and its breach would have been the earliest signal of the end of the upmove.
What About Short-term Trading?
The same tools outlined above can be used for short-term decision making, even in markets that are trading sideways, or so-called trendless markets. While the market may not be trending in a long-term sense, there are multiple smaller, short-term movements taking place that can be exploited. (One caveat must be noted, though: traders need to be aware of what is happening in the bigger picture. If shorter term ADX readings indicate a trending market, traders must be circumspect in initiating trades that are counter to the larger, daily trend.)

CHART 3: INTRADAY BASIS. On this hourly chart of the Australian dollar, the first entry signal was at point A. You could have held until point D, where you should have sold your position. The next entry signal was point AA (short) with a signal for covering that short position at point CC.

Let's then look at a short-term scenario using an hourly chart of the Australian dollar (chart 3). The first hint of a potential trading opportunity is the quick convergence of the DI+/DI- lines in the hour marked by point A. This is caused by the sharp bounce in price during that hour. The next hourly bar breaks through and closes above trendline resistance, precipitating DI+ crossing up through DI-. Following Wilder's extreme point rule, we wait for the previous high to be surpassed, which happens in the next hour at point B. At this point, we have several signals indicating a long position-the break of trendline resistance, crossover of DI+/DI-, extreme point rule satisfied, break of parabolic. As the market moves higher, the ADX begins to rise as well, peaking at point C and declining at point D, giving us our signal to exit the long. Basic trendline and parabolic supports are then broken several hours later setting the stage for the next potential move.

The next signal is given at point AA as the DI- crosses up through the DI+, generating a sell signal. This coincides with the price falling below recent hourly lows. The ADX begins to move up, indicating the possibility of a trend forming and eventually rises over 25 at point BB indicating a trend is in place and that the parabolic should be followed. Trendline and parabolic resistance are then breached and the ADX stalls at point CC, indicating an early, but profitable exit to the trade.
The Trend is Your Friend
Profiting from market trends is the essence of making the trend your friend. The first step to profiting from both short- and long-term trends is understanding what constitutes a trend and knowing how to identify them. The next step is employing a disciplined trading strategy that is specific to trends. A conscientious approach utilizing trendline analysis, the DMI system, and the parabolic indicator should help traders make more friends of market trends.

Trend vs. No Trend

2008-01-24T23:37:00.001-08:00

Which Technical Indicators to Use?

If "the trend is your friend," what happens when there is no trend? This is more than just a rhetorical question, since markets tend to move sideways much more frequently than they trend. For example, currency markets are particularly well known for long-term trends, which are in turn caused by long-term macro-economic trends, such as interest rate tightening or easing cycles. But even in currency markets, historical analysis reveals that trending periods only account for about 1/3 of price action over time, meaning that about two-thirds of the time there is no trend to catch.

By Brian Dolan
As published in TRADERS' Magazine July 2005

The Trend/No Trend Paradox
To make matters worse, many traders typically utilize only one or two technical indicators to identify market direction and trade-timing. This one-size-fits-all approach leaves them exposed to the trend/no-trend paradox – an indicator that works well in trending markets can give disastrous results in sideways markets and vice versa. As a result, individual traders frequently find themselves exiting positions too early and missing out on larger moves as a bigger trend unfolds. Conversely, traders may end up holding onto a short-term position for too long following a reversal, believing they are "with the trend," when no trend exists.

To avoid getting caught in the paradox, this article will suggest using several technical tools in conjunction to determine whether or not a trend is in place. This will in turn dictate which technical indicators are best used to gauge entry/exit points as well as provide some risk management guidance. Rather than setting forth a list of concrete trading rules, this article seeks to outline a dynamic approach to the use of technical analysis to avoid getting caught in the trend/no-trend paradox.

Trend-friendly Tools
The obvious starting point for this discussion is to define what is meant by a trend. In terms of technical analysis, a trend is a predictable price response at levels of support/resistance that change over time. For example, in an uptrend the defining feature is that prices rebound when they near support levels, ultimately establishing new highs. In a downtrend, the opposite is true – price increases will reverse as they near resistance levels, and new lows will be reached. This definition reveals the first of the tools used to identify whether a trend is in place or not – trendline analysis to establish support and resistance levels.

Trendline analysis is sometimes underestimated because it is perceived as overly subjective in nature. While this criticism has some truth, it overlooks the reality that trendlines help focus attention on the underlying price pattern, filtering out the noise of the market. For this reason, trendline analysis should be the first step in determining the existence of a trend. If trendline analysis does not reveal a discernible trend, it's probably because there isn't one. Trendline analysis will also help identify price formations that have their own predictive significance.

Trendline analysis is best employed starting with longer time frames (daily and weekly charts) first and then carrying them forward into shorter timeframes (hourly and 4-hourly) where shorter-term levels of support and resistance can then be identified. This approach has the advantage of highlighting the most significant levels of support/resistance first and minor levels next. This helps reduce the chances of following a short-term trendline break while a major long-term level is lurking nearby.

A more objective indicator of whether a market is trending is the directional movement indicator system (DMI). Using the DMI removes the guesswork involved with spotting trends and can also provide confirmation of trends identified by trendline analysis. The DMI system is comprised of the ADX (average directional movement index) and the DI+ and DI- lines. The ADX is used to determine whether or not a market is trending (regardless if it's up or down), with a reading over 25 indicating a trending market and a reading below 20 indicating no trend. The ADX is also a measure of the strength of a trend – the higher the ADX, the stronger the trend. Using the ADX, traders can determine whether or not there is a trend and thus whether or not to use a trend following system.

As its name would suggest, the DMI system is best employed using both components. The DI+ and DI- lines are used as trade entry signals. A buy signal is generated when the DI+ line crosses up through the DI- line; a sell signal is generated when the DI- line crosses up through the DI+ line. (Wilder suggests using the "extreme point rule" to govern the DI+/DI- crossover signal. The rule states that when the DI+/- lines cross, traders should note the extreme point for that period in the direction of the crossover (the high if DI+ crosses up over DI-; the low if DI- crosses up over DI+). Only if that extreme point is breached in the subsequent period is a trade signal confirmed.

The ADX can then be used as an early indicator of the end/pause in a trend. When the ADX begins to move lower from its highest level, the trend is either pausing or ending, signaling it is time to exit the current position and wait for a fresh signal from the DI+/DI- crossover.

Non-trend Tools
Momentum oscillators, such as RSI, stochastics, or MACD, are a favorite indicator of many traders and their utility is best applied to non-trending or sideways markets. The primary use of momentum indicators is to gauge whether a market is overbought or oversold relative to prior periods, potentially highlighting a price reversal before it actually occurs.

However, this application fails in the case of a trending market, as the price momentum can remain overbought/oversold for many periods while the price continues to move persistently higher/lower in line with the underlying trend. The practical result is that traders who rely solely on a momentum indicator might exit a profitable position too soon based on momentum having reached an extreme level, just as a larger trend movement is developing. Even worse, some might use overbought/oversold levels to initiate positions in the opposite direction, seeking to anticipate a price reversal based on extreme momentum levels.

The second use of momentum oscillators is to spot divergences between price and momentum. The rationale with divergences is that sustained price movements should be mirrored by the underlying momentum. For example, a new high in price should be matched by a new high in momentum if the price action is to be considered valid. If a new price high occurs without momentum reaching new highs, a divergence (in this case, a bearish divergence) is said to exist. Divergences frequently play out with the price action failing to sustain its direction and reversing course in line with the momentum.

In real life, though, divergences frequently appear in trending markets as momentum wanes (the rate of change of prices slows) but prices fail to reverse significantly, maintaining the trend. The practical result is that counter-trend trades are frequently initiated based on price/momentum divergences. If the market is trending, prices will maintain their direction, though their rate of change is slower. Eventually, prices will accelerate in line with the trend and momentum will reverse again in the direction of the trend, nullifying the observed divergence in the process. As such, divergences can create many false signals that mislead traders who fail to recognize when a trend is in place.

Putting the Tools to Work
Let's look at some real-life trading examples to illustrate the application of the tools outlined above and see how they can be used to avoid the trend/no-trend paradox. For these examples, MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) will be used as the momentum oscillator, though other oscillators could be substituted according to individual preferences.

The first example (Figure1) illustrates 4-hour EUR/USD price action with MACD and the DMI system (ADX, DI+, DI-) as accompanying studies. Following the framework outlined above, trendline analysis reveals several multi-day price movements, identified by trendlines 1 and 2. Looking next at the ADX, it rises above the "trend" level of 25 at point A, indicating that a trend is taking hold and that momentum readings should be discounted. This is helpful, because if one looked only at the MACD at this point, it might be tempting to conclude that the upmove was stalling as the MACD begins to falter. Subsequent price action, however, sees the market move higher.

Along the way however, trendline 1 is broken and the ADX tops out and begins to move lower (point B). While the price action has been extremely volatile around this point, it should be noted that the ADX over 25 negated the premature crossover signal of MACD as well as the break of support on trendline 1. At point C, the ADX has fallen back below 25 and this suggests taking another look at the MACD, which is beginning to diverge bearishly, as new price highs are not matched by new MACD highs. A subsequent sharp downmove in price generates another negative crossover on the MACD, and since ADX is now below 25, a short position is taken at about 1.3060 (point D).

Following along with trendline 2 now, MACD is clearly weakening as prices move lower. The ADX initially continues to fall indicating the absence of any trend, but begins to turn up after a failed test of trendline resistance at point E. The focus remains on the MACD at this point as the ADX is still below 25. As price declines slow, MACD crosses upward indicating it is time to exit the position at around 1.2900 at point F. Subsequent price action is extremely whippy and the ADX again fails to signal an extended trend, confirming the decision to exit.

The above example showed the interplay between ADX and momentum (MACD), where the absence of a trend indicated traders should focus on the underlying momentum to gauge price direction. Let's now look at an example where a trend is present and it essentially cancels out signals given by momentum.

Figure 2 shows USD/CHF in an hourly format with DMI and MACD as the studies. Beginning with trendline analysis again, trendline resistance from previous highs is broken at point A. Momentum as shown by MACD has been moving higher and supports the break higher. The ADX also rises above 25, confirming the break higher and indicating a long position should be taken at approximately 1.1650. The trade entry could also have been signaled earlier by the crossover of DI+ over DI- and the application of Wilder's 'Extreme Point Rule.'

Subsequent price moves are modest initially, but the relevant feature to note is that the ADX remains well above 25, suggesting momentum signals should be disregarded. This is critical since the MACD quickly generates a signal to exit the trade at point B. Relying on the ADX alone at this point, however, the long position is maintained and subsequent price gains cause MACD to reverse higher again. ADX continues to rise with the price gains, which are also adhering to trendline support. MACD again generates a sell signal at point C, but this is ignored as the ADX approaches 50, suggesting a strong trend is now in place. Price gains become more explosive and the ADX goes on to register new highs. Contrast that with the MACD which is indicating a bearish divergence from point D onwards, even though the uptrend remains intact. The ADX also indicates a bearish divergence, implying trend intensity is fading. Only at point E are exit signals given by the break of trendline support and the decline of ADX below 25 at point E around 1.2000. In this example, a short-term trade was able to capitalize on a much larger move by employing the ADX in addition to the MACD. A strictly momentum based approach would have been caught in multiple whipsaws, or even a premature short based on bearish divergence.

Bottom line
Financial markets are inherently dynamic environments. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the trend/no trend paradox. Trading rules or themes that apply one day might be obsolete by the next day. Carrying that notion over to technical analysis suggests traders need to employ dynamic technical tools to adapt to ever changing markets. An approach that utilizes trendline analysis, Wilder's DMI system, and momentum oscillators can yield far better results across varying market conditions than a single-indicator approach.

Forex Trader Charts

2008-01-24T23:28:00.000-08:00

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APAKAH BURSA BERJANGKA ITU??????

2007-07-02T00:05:00.000-07:00

Saya sangat tertarik dengan berita-berita yang saya temui di beberapa media cetak, elektronik dan bahkan media internet tentang bidang investasi yang satu ini. Disana disebutkan bahwa ada beberapa investor yang menanamkan sejumlah dana untuk di transaksikan dalam Pasar Bursa Berjangka dan akhirnya bukanlah keuntungan yang di dapat melainkan investasi yang mereka tanamkan ludes alias menanggung rugi, bahkan ada beberapa yang harus menggadaikan barang berharga mereka atau menarik investasi mereka di tempat lain untuk menutupi kerugian yang di derita bahkan ada juga yang terpaksa berhutang. Di kesempatan lain saya juga membaca bahwa terjadi penipuan yang mengatasnamakan sebuah perusahaan broker berjangka dalam dan bahkan luar negeri dimana pihak-pihak yang tidak bertanggung jawab tersebut melarikan dana nasabah yang sudah terkumpul.
Beranjak dari pemberitaan tersebut saya mencoba untuk menulis artikel ini agar masyarakat bisa mendapatkan informasi yang lebih lengkap tentang Pasar Bursa Berjangka. Agar di kemudian hari hal-hal tersebut diatas tidak akan terjadi lagi dan citra Pasar Bursa Berjangka yang sudah sempat dirusak oleh oknum-oknum yang tidak bertanggung jawab tersebut dapat menjadi baik kembali, serta dapat menjadi salah satu pilihan pos investasi yang semakin dilirik oleh semua kalangan.
Apakah Perdagangan Berjangka itu ?
Sebelum kita beranjak lebih jauh akan lebih baik jika kita tahu pengertian dari Perdagangan Berjangka. Perdagangan Berjangka adalah segala sesuatu yang berkaitan dengan jual beli komoditas dengan penyerahan kemudian berdasarkan Kontrak Berjangka dan opsi atas Kontrak Berjangka.
Dalam sejarah Perdagangan Berjangka International dapat dibagi menjadi 2 bagian yaitu, awal mula adanya pasar berjangka tersebut, dimana pada awalnya masyarakat agragria mempergunakan apa yang disebut sebagai “forward contracts” (perjanjian untuk membeli sekarang tetapi pembayaran dan pengiriman dilakukan kemudian) yang dilakukan agar mendapatkan komoditas pertanian dengan lebih efisien dari produsen kepada pembeli, pada harga yang dan sistem pengiriman yang sudah terbentuk. Tercatat dalam sejarah, bahwa di Jepang sudah terjadi “forward contracts” pada abad ke-19 dalam menentukan harga beras. Sedangkan Bursa Berjangka yang terorganisir dengan baik pada mulanya terbentuk di Chicago, Amerika pada tahun 1848. Dimana pada saat itu Chicago merupakan kota penghubung yang terbentuk secara alami dengan adanya proyek pembangunan rel kereta. Bagian ke dua adalah bagian di masa sekarang dimana pada akhirnya industri berjangka tersebut berevolusi dan menjadi bagian dari abad ke-20, yang pada akhirnya memberikan arti yang baru dari kata “komoditi”, yang pada akhirnya dapat mengakomodasikan kebutuhan pasar keuangan yang kompleks bagi masyarakat dimana pertanian bukanlah lagi sebagai dasar perekomian mereka.
Di Indonesia sendiri Perdagangan Berjangka mulai dikenal sekitar tahun 1990-an. Pada waktu itu terdapat beberapa perusahaan yang menjalankan usahanya sebagai perwakilan dari Perusahaan Pialang berjangka di Luar Negeri (mayoritas saat berafiliasi di Jepang) tetapi pemerintah baru membentuk Badan Pengawas Perdagangan Berjangka dan Komoditi di tahun 1997 berdasarkan Pasal 79 Undang Undang No. 32 tahun 1997 yang merupakan salah satu unit eselon I dibawah naungan Departemen Perindustrian dan Perdagangan. Yang kemudian secara resmi dibentuk pada tanggal 27 September 1999 bedasarkan Keputusan Presiden No. 115 tahun 1999 yang kemudian diperbaharui beberapa kali terakhir dengan Keputusan Presiden No. 37 tahun 2001. Adapun struktur Industri Berjangka di Indonesia dapat anda lihat di website resmi bappebti. (www.bappebti.go.id)
Manfaat dari Perdagangan Berjangka Bagi Perekonomian
Pada dasarnya terdapat dua manfaat dari Perdagangan Berjangka, yang pertama adalah sebagai sarana pembentukan harga dimana dalam hal ini harga yang terbentuk di pasar berjalan dengan transparan dan sangat dimungkinkan karena yang dapat bertransaksi adalah para anggota bursa yang mewakili nasabah atau dirinya sendiri, dimana mereka tidak saling kenal satu dengan yang lainnya. Dan yang kedua adalah sebagai sarana pengelolaan resiko dengan sistem lindung nilai (hedging), hal ini dikarenakan harga komoditas primer sangat berfluktuasi dan di pengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor yang kadang kala tidak dapat di kontrol seperti musim, bencana alam, gagal panen dan lain-lain. Dengan adanya sistem lindung nilai produsen komoditi dapat menjual produk mereka beberapa bulan kemudian dengan harga yang “dikunci” (sebelum panen) sehingga mereka mendapatkan kepastian bahwa apapun yang terjadi di masa datang komoditas mereka akan terjual sesuai dengan harga yang telah disetujui. Sistem “hedging” ini juga dapat digunakan oleh para pengguna Perdagangan Berjangka lainnya seperti, pengolah, pedagang, eksportir dan konsumen untuk melindungi diri mereka terhadap resiko yang mungkin terjadi sebagai akibat dari fluktuasi harga di pasar, karena dapat memberikan jaminan kestabilan harga komoditi yang dapat di prediksi dengan baik.
Manfaat Perdagangan Berjangka Bagi Investor
Sejalan dengan berkembangnya jaman maka, pada saat sekarang ini di dalam Bursa Berjangka dapat dibagi menjadi 3 jenis pasar utama yaitu:
1. Futures Market
2. Forward Market
3. Spot Market

Perbedaan mendasar dari Futures Market dengan Spot Market adalah:

Futures Market/Forward Market
1. Adanya masa Kontrak Berjangka (biasanya kurang dari satu tahun) dalam arti jika masa kontrak telah habis maka investor wajib menutup transaksi yang masih terbuka di pasar.

Spot Market
1. Kontrak Berjangka yang lamanya tidak terbatas dengan pengertian bahwa Kontrak Berjangka tersebut secara otomatis di “roll-over”

Meski demikian dalam dua jenis pasar tersebut terdapat sistem hedging yang memungkinkan bagi investor agar dapat mengambil keuntungan dengan cara melakukan transaksi beli Kontrak Berjangka pada saat harga rendah dan menjualnya pada saat harga tinggi, atau sebaliknya menjual Kontrak Berjangka pada saat harga tinggi dan membeli kembali pada harga rendah
Dengan demikian apabila anda dapat memanfaatkan pergerakan pasar dengan baik maka potensi keuntungan yang bisa didapat oleh seorang investor di dalam pasar berjangka kira – kira berkisar antara 5 % – 10 % setiap bulannya dari total investasi yang anda tanamkan. Dan yang lebih menarik lagi, sampai saat ini total keuntungan yang didapat tersebut bebas dari pajak karena Perusahaan Pialang Berjangka lah yang membayarkan pajak tersebut (sudah dihitung dalam komisi yang dibebankan terhadap investor dalam satu kali transaksi). Dengan demikian jika anda berinvestasi dengan jumlah Rp. 100.000.000,- maka dalam satu bulan anda bisa mendapatkan potensi keuntungan antara Rp. 5.000.000,- sampai dengan Rp. 10.000.000,-. Jika jumlah Rp. 100.000.000,- sebagai investasi awal masih terlalu besar, maka beberapa perusahaan Pialang Berjangka saat ini juga memberikan peluang bagi investor kecil dengan rata-rata jumlah minimum investasi sebesar Rp. 10.000.000,- dengan potensi keuntungan yang kurang lebih juga berkisar antara 5 % - 10 % setiap bulannya. Cukup menarik jika dibandingkan dengan menaruh uang kita di dalam deposito atau produk investasi lainnya bukan?

PERHITUNGAN INVESTASI DI BISNIS INVESTASI BERJANGKA

2007-07-01T22:19:00.000-07:00

Pada dasarnya Perdagangan Berjangka itu mempunyai karakteristik pasar yang unik. Didalam pasar ini dikenal istilah pasar dua arah, dimana kita sebagai investor dapat melakukan transaksi beli atau jual kapan saja kita mau tanpa harus menunggu antrian harga sebagaimana yang terjadi di pasar saham. Sebagai contoh mari kita lihat perdagangan valuta asing Poundsterling terhadap Dollar dalam ilustrasi berikut:
Ilustrasi 1 :
Harga pada saat ini adalah 1.8500 harga ini merupakan harga terendah pasar sehingga bisa dipastikan bahwa harga akan mulai bergerak keatas, titik ini adalah saat yang paling tepat untuk membuka transaksi dengan membeli Poundsterling dan pada saat harga mencapai angka 1.8550 kita menutup transaksi tersebut. Sehingga perhitungan profit akan menjadi sebagai berikut:
1.8550 – 1.8500 x $ 10 = $ 500
Komisi = ($ 50)*
Profit Bersih = $ 450
Ilustrasi 2 :
Harga tertinggi pada saat ini adalah 1.8590 pada saat harga menyentuh angka ini maka pasar akan mulai bergerak turun, harga ini adalah saat yang tepat untuk melakukan penjualan maka pada saat harga menyentuh harga 1.8560, maka kita dapat menutup transaksi dengan membeli Poundsterling, maka perhitungan profit adalah sebagai berikut :
1.8590 – 1.8560 x $ 10 = $ 300
Komisi = ($ 50)*
Profit Bersih = $ 250

*Komisi sebesar $50 adalah besarnya komisi yang dibebankan oleh rata - rata Perusahaan Broker Perdagangan Berjangka.
Dengan bentuk ilustrasi tersebut diatas dan kemungkinan terjadinya kerugian pada saat melakukan transaksi karena salah prediksi dalam membaca pergerakan pasar, maka dalam satu bulan secara rata-rata seorang investor Perdagangan Berjangka bisa mendapatkan keuntungan antara 5 % - 10 % dalam satu bulan, suatu jumlah yang bagus jika dibandingkan dengan instrumen investasi lainnya bukan? Ditambah lagi profit bersih yang kita dapat sebagai investor adalah benar-benar profit bersih karena pajak yang harus kita bayarkan sudah termasuk ke dalam komisi yang kita bayarkan untuk perusahaan.
Tetapi satu hal yang harus kita ingat adalah pasar ini termasuk kedalam golongan investasi dengan resiko yang cukup tinggi, oleh karena itu sebelum tergiur dengan profit yang bisa kita dapat akan sangat baik jika kita mengetahui karakteristik pasar yang akan kita masuki, kredibilitas perusahaan tempat kita menaruh dana (dapat dilihat di website www.bappebti.go.id), apa tujuan investasi kita dan jangan lupa dari mana sumber dana yang akan kita investasikan tersebut. Jangan sampai dana yang seharusnya kita pakai untuk makan sehari – hari kita investasikan di pasar ini karena hal tersebut bisa mengganggu alur keuangan kita dan pada akhirnya merugikan kita sendiri.

Kekuatan dan kelemahan perdagangan berjangka

Kekuatan
1. Masa Transaksi yang panjang yaitu selama 24 jam sehari
2. Anda dimungkinkan untuk melakukan transaksi Jual Kontrak Berjangka pada saat harga tinggi dan membelinya kembali di harga rendah (pasar dua arah)
3. Anda dimungkinkan untuk berinvestasi dengan modal yang lumayan kecil mulai dari Rp. 10.000.000,- (beberapa perusahaan Pialang Berjangka membuka Mini Account)
4. Jika mau, anda dapat melakukan transaksi jual dan beli kontrak berjangka sendiri dengan bantuan analisa dari pihak Perusahaan Pialang Berjangka
5. Potensi keuntungan yang tidak terbatas
6. Jika anda ingin menarik profit ataupun seluruh investasi anda (dengan catatan tidak ada posisi/transaksi terbuka pada account anda), biasanya dana anda dapat dicairkan pada hari yang sama atau paling lambat 3 hari hari kerja (Fleksibel dalam penarikan dan penempatan dana investasi)
7. Komisi yang dibayarkan kepada Perusahaan Pialang hanya satu kali yaitu pada saat anda menutup transaksi
8. Bebas pajak

Kelemahan
1. Harus memperhatikan kapan Kontrak Berjangka anda habis (biasanya kurang dari satu tahun) ==> Khusus Futures
2. Pada produk-produk tertentu harga bergerak dengan sangat aktif, sehingga diperlukan ketelitian, kesabaran, kecepatan serta ketepatan dalam mengambil keputusan
3. Potensi kerugian yang tidak terbatas (dapat mengakibatkan seluruh investasi anda hilang dalam waktu yang singkat)
4. Untung atau pun rugi komisi transaksi tetap harus dibayarkan

2007-07-01T22:04:00.000-07:00

Forex Trading
Saat memulai investasi, hal pertama yang harus diketahui adalah apakah investasi tersebut memiliki legalitas dan dasar hukum yang jelas, terutama dalam forex trading. Legalitas (terutama mengenai perizinan pialang dan wakil pialang) menjadi isu yang sangat penting karena tanpa adanya legalitas dari pemerintah, maka artinya keberadaan dana investor tidak dijamin keberadaannya oleh pemerintah dan tidak ada perlindungan untuk hak investor.

Karena ada begitu banyaknya penawaran dari perusahaan Pialang yang tidak berizin (ilegal) dengan risiko membawa kabur dana nasabah akibat tidak adanya pengawasan dari instrumen-instrumen pemerintahan. Perizinan diperlukan untuk mengawasi dan memastikan bahwa perusahaan Pialang merupakan perusahaan yang jelas dan bonafid.

Di Indonesia, badan pemerintahan yang mengatur perizinan dan kegiatan investasi forex trading dipegang oleh Bappebti (Badan Pengawas Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi), BBJ (Bursa Berjangka Jakarta) dan KBI (Kliring Berjangka Indonesia).

Pialang yang Legal atau Resmi berarti Pialang tersebut terdaftar di ketiga badan Otoritas Perdagangan Berjangka (BBJ, Bappebti dan KBI), di luar itu atau ketidaklengkapan izin berarti bahwa Pialang tersebut tidak Legal dan keamanan dana nasabah tidak dijamin oleh pemerintah.

Adakah pialang yang tidak mengantongi izin tersebut? Ada. Banyak bahkan. Seperti sudah dijelaskan diatas, pasar forex adalah pasar yang sangat besar. Banyak orang yang berminat berinvestasi dibidang ini. Ini menjadi lahan subur timbulnya berbagai jenis penipuan dengan menyamar sebagai pialang-pialang forex.

Kalau izin resmi, maka dana yang disetorkan nasabah untuk berinvestasi akan disalurkan ke BBJ melalui sebuah rekening terpisah yang biasa disebut “segregated account”. Rekening terpisah ini berguna untuk menampung semua dana nasabah yang berinvestasi sehingga tidak dimanfaatkan oleh pihak-pihak manapun termasuk pialang yang bersangkutan.

Mereka yang tidak mengantongi izin bisa saja memakai berbagai macam promosi yang muluk-muluk untuk menjerat calon nasabahnya sehingga mau bertransaksi forex dan menyetorkan dananya (tentu saja bukan ke rekening segregated account). Hasilnya? Dana nasabah tidak dapat dipertanggung jawabkan keberadaannya.

Nah, timbul pertanyaan bagaimana membedakan pialang yang legal dengan yang ilegal? Ada beberapa cara:
Pertama, pastikan kita mengetahui mereka memiliki izin menjalankan usahanya oleh BBJ dan Bappebti. Apabila mereka memiliki website, biasanya mereka melampirkan kopi izin mereka pada page yang ada.

Kedua, pastikan apabila kita menyetorkan dana pada mereka, nomor rekening yang dituju adalah rekening segregated.
Terakhir, kita patut mencurigai pialang-pialang yang mempromosikan bahwa apabila bertransaksi forex melalui mereka kita dibebaskan dari charge. Ini mustahil terjadi di Indonesia. Sebab pemerintah mengenakan charge pada tiap-tiap pialang berizin yang akan dibebankan kepada nasabahnya. Kalau diluar negeri memang ada yang bebas charge, tapi mustahil ada di Indonesia (paling tidak untuk saat ini sampai ada perubahan regulasi pemerintah).

Beberapa kasus yang pernah terjadi diantaranya adalah adanya pialang yang membawa kabur dana nasabahnya dan melakukan aksi pembandaran (bucket) yaitu dengan tidak meneruskan dana yang disetorkan nasabah ke bursa bahkan hingga terjadinya aksi premanisme/kekerasan dalam perihal penarikan dana nasabah.

Semua kasus diatas merugikan nasabah/investor sekaligus memberikan image yang buruk mengenai perdagangan berjangka khususnya forex trading. Untuk itu sangat disarankan untuk setiap investor menjalankan investasinya pada pialang yang memiliki izin resmi dari pemerintah. Daftar pialang-pialang berjangkan yang memiliki izin resmi dari pemerintah dapat dilihat pada
http://www.bappebti.go.id/data/perusahaanpialang.asp

Ciri-ciri pialang illegal adalah :
a. Tidak terdaftar di BBJ.
b. Tidak terdaftar di Bappebti.
c. Tidak terdaftar di KBI.
d. Tidak mempunyai Ijin transaksi luar negeri.

Bursa Berjangka Jakarta
Fungsi utama BBJ adalah menyediakan fasilitas bagi anggota untuk bertemu dan bertransaksi Kontrak Berjangka. Harga ditentukan melalui metode elektronis, melalui interaksi antara permintaan dan penawaran dalam sistem perdagangan. Berikut detail tentang BBJ

• Didirikan pada tanggal 21 November 2000
• Menyediakan fasilitas bagi anggota untuk bertemu dan bertransaksi Kontrak Berjangka atau pasar tempat pertemuan antara penjual dan pembeli semua jenis perdagangan berjangka di Indonesia.
• Memiliki peran yang sama dengan Bursa Efek Jakarta (BEJ) pada dunia saham. Hanya saja BBJ merupakan ‘floor’ untuk setiap perdagangan produk-produk berjangka seperti indeks, komoditi dan forex.
• Situs Resmi: http://www.bbj-jfx.com

Bappebti
Badan Pengawas Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi atau Bappebti dibentuk berdasarkan Undang-Undang Nomor 32 Tahun 1997 tentang Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi merupakan salah satu unit eselon I berada di bawah naungan Departemen Perindustrian dan Perdagangan. Berikut detail tentang Bappebti

• Berdasarkan Undang-Undang Nomor 32 Tahun 1997 tentang Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi
• Unit eselon I berada di bawah Departemen Perindustrian dan Perdagangan.
• Bertugas melaksanakan pembinaan, pengaturan dan pengawasan kegiatan perdagangan berjangka serta pasar fisik dan jasa.
• Situs Resmi : http://www.bappebti.go.id
• Daftar Pialang terdaftar di Bappebti : http://www.bappebti.go.id/data/perusahaanpialang.asp

Secara praktis Bappebti berfungsi sebagai pengawas keamanan bertransaksi dalam semua perdagangan berjangka di Indonesia, termasuk di dalamnya Forex Trading. Secara aktif Bappebti mengeluarkan berbagai regulasi dan peraturan dengan tujuan menjaga keamanan investor dalam bertransaksi di bidang perdagangan komoditi berjangka

KBI
PT. Kliring Berjangka Indonesia (KBI) adalah suatu perusahaan negara (BUMN) yang telah mendapat izin usaha dari Bappebti untuk melakukan penyelesaian dan penjaminan transaksi perdagangan berjangka di bursa berjangka. Berikut detail tentang KBI

• Didirikan pada tanggal 25 Agustus 1984.
• Salah satu otoritas pada Industri Berjangka dan Derivatif di Indonesia yang saat ini dimiliki secara penuh oleh Pemerintah Republik Indonesia.
• Berfungsi untuk mendukung kegiatan perdagangan berjangka secara teratur, wajar dan efisien.
• Dari sisi investor, keberadaan KBI menjamin bahwa setiap dana yang diinvestasikan melalui pialang tidak disalah gunakan untuk kegiatan perusahaan pialang secara pribadi dengan menunjuk Bank Penyimpan untuk Segregated Account dari Pialang untuk menampung dana Nasabah
• Situs Resmi : http://www.kjbk.co.id/
• Daftar Pialang terdaftar di KBI :
http://www.kjbk.co.id/derivatif/ina/anggota.php?id=2&syarat=A

Definisi Segregated Account : Rekening terpisah dari Perusahaan Pialang yang menampung dana nasabah sehingga jika Pialang mengalami insolvency, dana nasabah dapat diamankan dan tidak hold customer funds so that if a brokerage house becomes insolvent, the customers' funds will be readily recognizable and will not be tied up in litigation for extended periods of time.

BURSA BERJANGKA

2007-07-01T21:58:00.000-07:00

Mengenal Investasi Derivatif
Perdagangan Berjangka Berbeda dengan Judi
PADA dasarnya perdagangan berjangka dapat memberikan beberapa manfaat bagi perekonomian, di antaranya sebagai sarana pengalihan risiko (transfer of risk) melalui kegiatan lindung nilai (hedging). Selain itu juga sebagai alternatif investasi (investment enhancement).

Dalam hal ini, kehadiran pasar berjangka dapat dimanfaatkan oleh mereka yang berani mengambil risiko yang mengharapkan keuntungan dari perubahan harga.

Lalu, bagaimana jika ingin memanfaatkan perdagangan berjangka untuk kegiatan lindung nilai atau berinventasi siapa yang harus dihubungi? Investor yang ingin melakukan transaksi perdagangan berjangka harus berhubungan dengan perusahaan Pialang Berjangka yang telah mendapat izin dari Bappebti. Daftar nama-nama perusahaan Pialang Berjangka yang resmi dapat ditanyakan langsung ke Bappebti, BBJ, dan KBI atau dapat dibaca melalui situs website dari ketiga lembaga tersebut.

Namun informasi yang diperoleh sebaiknya juga ditindaklanjuti dengan benar dan dapat dipertanggungjawabkan secara hukum. Nasabah harus berhubungan hanya dengan mereka yang telah mempunyai izin dari Bappebti sebagai Wakil Pialang Berjangka dari perusahaan Pialang Berjangka.

Daftar Bursa

Selain itu, investor akan memperoleh informasi alternatif manajemen risiko yang tepat sesuai karakteristik masing-masing investor sebelum memulai transaksi di bursa. Perusahaan ini memiliki visi sebagai penggerak, pemimpin dan pendiri futures di Indonesia yang dapat dipercaya.

Selama ini, banyak investor yang mempertanyakan, bagaimana komoditas atau indeks luar negeri bisa diperdagangkan di sini. Penjelasannya begini, pialang berjangka yang mendapatkan izin dari Bappebti dimungkinkan menyalurkan order/amanat Nasabah ke bursa luar negeri. Untuk dapat menyalurkan amanat/order Nasabah ke bursa luar negeri, perusahaan Pialang berjangka tersebut wajib memenuhi persyaratan tambahan yang cukup berat dari Bappebti.

Persyaratan tambahan tersebut diperlukan dengan maksud agar dana nasabah yang disalurkan ke luar negeri benar-benar dijamin perlindungannya. Di samping itu, Bappebti juga menetapkan daftar bursa luar negeri dan kontraknya yang dapat dimanfaatkan oleh Nasabah domestik.

Kemudian apa bedanya bisnis ini dengan judi? ''Jelas sangat berbeda. Perbedaannya dapat dilihat dari beberapa segi terutama dari dasar keadaan risiko yang dihadapi, proses pengambilan keputusan, dan manfaat ekonomi,'.

Dalam pasar berjangka, risiko yang dihadapi dunia usaha adalah risiko yang melekat (inherent) yang perlu dikelola, sementara risiko dalam kegiatan judi adalah yang diciptakan sendiri. Proses keputusan untuk mengambil posisi semata-mata karena feeling atau untung-untungan, sementara dalam pasar berjangka diperlukan suatu kemampuan analisis fundamental dan atau technical berbagai informasi/data.

Dan yang terpenting, kegiatan perdagangan berjangka memberikan manfaat yang sangat besar sebagai sarana lindung nilai, pembentukan harga, alternatif investasi sekaligus lapangan kerja terutama para profesional dan tenaga pendukung lainnya, sementara kegiatan judi, terbukti banyak menimbulkan kerugian bagi masyarakat.